Monday, November 5, 2012

Skilling Up Part 1

Alright, this is mostly theory crafting based on math. If this is not the absolute cheapest way to skill up a card from 1-10 it's pretty damn close. My rough prices are based on number of attempts that should be reasonable based on eyeballing the percentages. I did not use best case scenarios nor did I use worse case scenarios. I estimated somewhere in between. I am NOT willing to start calculating probability of individual events with varying percent chances.

Special Note: No, using 1 card at a time will not yield better results. It is a mathematically fallacy that is proven even more false the more you do it. Some people have experienced success using 1 HN at a time and rave about how it's better. These people are plainly wrong. They got lucky one time and if they continue doing it that way, much like gambling at a casino, it will balance out for their loss.

Skilling a High Rare (rare evolved into HR):


Lvl 1-2: 8 Skilled High Normals yielding 96% chance to skill up - Rough Price under 1HP

Lvl 2-3: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 72% chance to skill up -  28% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 1-2HP

Lvl 3-4: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 54% chance to skill up -  46% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 2-3HP

Lvl 4-5: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 44% chance to skill up - 56% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 2-3HP

Lvl 5-6: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 39% chance to skill up - 61% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 3-4HP

Lvl 6-7: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 31% chance to skill up - 69% (giggity) chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 4-5HP

Lvl 7-8: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 27% chance to skill up - 73% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 4-5HP

Lvl 8-9: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 27% chance to skill up - 73% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 4-5HP

Lvl 9-10: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 22% chance to skill up - 78% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 6-7HP

Overall this should normally average out to somewhere around 30ishHP but could get as bad as 40+HP

Skilling an SR (HR evolved into SR)


Lvl 1-2: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 72% chance to skill up -  28% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 1-2HP

Lvl 2-3: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 48% chance to skill up - 52% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 2-3HP

Lvl 3-4: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 36% chance to skill up - 64% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 4-5HP

Lvl 4-5: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 28% chance to skill up - 72% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 4-5HP

Lvl 5-6: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 24% chance to skill up - 76% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 5-6HP

Lvl 6-7: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 20% chance to skill up - 80% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 6-7HP

Lvl 7-8: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 18% chance to skill up - 82% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 6-7HP

Lvl 8-9: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 16% chance to skill up - 84% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 7-8HP

Lvl 9-10: 9 Skilled High Normals yielding 14% chance to skill up - 86% chance you will have to try again. Rough Price 7-8HP

Overall this should normally average out somewhere around 40HP but could get as bad as 50+. The last few levels can get particularly bad.

In both rarity classes there is no reason to evolve the High Normals into Rares since the percentage increase is so small and requires four HN.

26 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. You can only purchase feeders in groups of 9, so I find it the easiest denomination to do the math in. Realistically use the 10th one whenever you can, but chances are you won't be purchasing in groups of 10.

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    2. Ahh, I started just a week or so before the Bazaar so I don't have those buy/sell relationships. I've never bought feeders.

      That all makes sense now.

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  2. In other words, skilling up for me is going to be a pain in the ass... Do you think i will have to buy groups of rares for SR Skill Leveling after level 6? Thank you for everything as well. :)

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    1. If you mean SR evolved into SSR, then you'll actually be skipping rares and going with Treasure HR I think. I still need to check everything.

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  3. Noob question what does boosting skill actually do does it increase chance of activating the skill or increase effect of the particular skill ?

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    1. each time you skill up it increases the effectiveness by 1% from skill lvl 9 to 10 its 2% so a total of 10% more if you skill to lvl 10. example a big hit to a focused realms def is 13% if you skill it to lvl 10 it becomes 23%...quite the difference.

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  4. was talking to smyg about sr to ssr. says that its the same using rares as if you use hn for hr to sr cards. i was just asking him all this in line the other day lol...btw how come your never in line talkin with the order :(

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    1. Because I'm a very very bad order member and have yet to download line.

      I tend to be able to finish all my trading quickly and any of my daily activities so I'm not on a lot. I used to be online a lot more when I could do unlimited trading because more time=more HP. Now I can only do 1-2 trades a day so being online a lot serves no purpose.

      I'll download line right before next HW though. I was a bit annoyed the couple times I missed big point matches and don't want to miss them again.

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    2. best thing about line is everyone doesnt use their tickets. we are all constantly helping people buy and sell cards they have that they either want to obtain or get rid of. might help you get more hp :P ... and sorry for the above post lol i knew the answer so i thought id help you out haha

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    3. Don't worry about answering questions. People are allowed to answer/help each other. It also makes it easier when I'm going through to not have to type out a response.

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  5. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  6. slightly off-topic, but is it worth saving gems from battle rankings to get cards or LCP etc, or just get HP and using that to buy cards?

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    1. I personally use gems for LCP but most people I know use the more intelligent option of saving them for the better card packs.

      I tend to use my HP to generate more HP through trades and use that to buy card packs.

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    2. I mean 'use that to buy cards'*

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  7. Hey lucarda! I only want to thank u again! I started this game close to the trade bann and with your help I'm on rank 479 today! Thanx a lot, I don't think that would be possible without your blog!

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  8. They got lucky one time and if they continue doing it that way, much like gambling at a casino, it will balance out for their loss.

    As far as I know, this is incorrect. You're right that using them one at a time isn't better, but it also isn't worse on average. The key phrase is, "on average." Using more skillers at once does have an effect, but it isn't to make the cards more likely to produce a skill up. The effect is to reduce variance. In other words, people using one card at a time will have both faster and slower skill up rates than you've posted here. But if you average enough of them out, the result will be identical to using the cards in groups of nine or ten. The larger the group you use to skill up, the lower the variance will be and the closer your individual skill up costs will approximate the ones you've estimated, but in large enough groups both methods produce equivalent results.

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    1. I'm just not getting into this gain. Look up independent events and gamblers fallacy in probability and you'll understand why using them individually doesn't work as well. Believe what you want, but you're wrong.

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  9. I'll drop it also, but my point has nothing to do with gambler's fallacy. I'm not suggesting that for an individual gambler that the world remembers past failures and averages them out with future success. I'm pointing out that given a large enough pool of gamblers, they all average out. Individual gamblers do well or poorly, but the house always wins.

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    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. I didn't like the way you phrased it. Just like I didn't like the way you phrased that one. I understand geometric distribution and how it applies in this situation but really didn't care for your attitude.

      I guess being a probability and statistics major meant that you never learned basic rules about tone of a message.

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  10. I was thinking to ensure a better chance at skilling up, can I skill up the HN and rare feeders? Will increase my percentage of skilling?
    Ive used your skilling strategy, and even used HRs and Rs in sets of 9-10 2x to ensure the skill up, and before you know it, boom! the card is maxed out

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Skilling up the feeders will increase the chance. It isn't necessary until levels 7-10 though and doesn't always pay off. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't.

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  11. Your strategy usually works for me, but lately I've had bad luck skilling up my Pan from 6-7. I've used almost 30 sets of hn. Do you have any suggestions on how to get this card to finally skill up? I even tried some HR cards thrown in (boosted to almost 40%) with no avail.

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    Replies
    1. If you're really struggling, use HN to skill up your HN. Once each HN is skill 4 or 5, you can use them for an increased chance.

      If that seems time consuming or expensive, purchase treasure HR for cheap that have already been skilled to 3 or so. Using 9 of those should pretty much ensure a skill up.

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